Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $562,705$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{630,285.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 162.6)}}\) (asimptote \(630,285.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,320$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,553.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 185.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,553.9\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,494$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $309,413$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{761,239.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 246.7)}}\) (asimptote \(761,239.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,372$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,835$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $449,153$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{524,635.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 183.6)}}\) (asimptote \(524,635.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,568$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,567.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 155.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,567.1\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,376$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,837$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,755.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,755.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,147$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 147.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,246.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,741$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $79,975$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,020.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 165.2)}}\) (asimptote \(87,020.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $312$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{314.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(314.3\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,189$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $120,927$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,603.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 149.7)}}\) (asimptote \(120,603.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $744$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{650.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 88.8)}}\) (asimptote \(650.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,073$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,144$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,035.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,035.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,130$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,173.9}{1 + 10^{-0.874 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,173.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,677$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $344,552$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,892.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.0)}}\) (asimptote \(336,892.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,281$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,316.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,316.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,276$ on 2020-10-24