Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Uzbekistan
  • Maldives
  • Tajikistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $562,705$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{630,285.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 162.6)}}\) (asimptote \(630,285.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,320$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,553.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 185.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,553.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,494$ on 2020-10-24

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,413$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{761,239.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 246.7)}}\) (asimptote \(761,239.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,372$ on 2020-10-24

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,835$ on 2020-10-24

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $449,153$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{524,635.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 183.6)}}\) (asimptote \(524,635.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,568$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,567.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 155.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,567.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,376$ on 2020-10-24

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,837$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,755.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,755.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,147$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 147.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,246.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,741$ on 2020-10-24

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $79,975$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,020.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 165.2)}}\) (asimptote \(87,020.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $312$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{314.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(314.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,189$ on 2020-10-24

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $120,927$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,603.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 149.7)}}\) (asimptote \(120,603.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $744$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{650.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 88.8)}}\) (asimptote \(650.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,073$ on 2020-10-24

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,144$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,035.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,035.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,130$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,173.9}{1 + 10^{-0.874 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,173.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,677$ on 2020-10-24

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $344,552$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,892.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.0)}}\) (asimptote \(336,892.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,281$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,316.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,316.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,276$ on 2020-10-24

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Israel recovered 78%
Uzbekistan recovered 75%
Maldives recovered 67%
Tajikistan recovered 57%
India recovered 34%
Bangladesh recovered 32%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,128$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,956.9}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(85,956.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,739$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,701.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,701.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $415$ on 2020-10-24

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $64,923$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,221.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.7)}}\) (asimptote \(69,221.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $544$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{566.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 137.4)}}\) (asimptote \(566.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,346$ on 2020-10-24

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,421$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,047.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 172.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14,047.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $912$ on 2020-10-24

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,736$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,951.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,951.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $81$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(79.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $819$ on 2020-10-24